特朗普政府核政策评析

An Analysis of Donald Trump Administration’s Nuclear Policy

特朗普政府从大国地缘政治竞争尤其是军事竞争的角度看待国际政治,认为中国和俄罗斯的核力量构成了美国国家安全与核安全面临的"头号威胁"。特朗普政府对冷战后的美国核政策进行了重大调整,增加了核武器在国家安全中的地位与作用,不再承担国际防扩散义务,并对特定国家实施"定制核威慑"。特朗普政府实施的核政策,并没有改变美国依靠核武器确保美国霸权、通过核武器向盟国提供延伸安全保障,以及选择性地实施防扩散的做法,在极大地导致核军备竞赛、刺激核扩散的同时,降低了使用核武器的门槛。这是对国际战略稳定的破坏和挑衅。为此,国际社会进行了斗争,以降低核武器使用的风险。在可预见的将来,国际核态势依然十分严峻。

The Donald Trump administration saw international politics through the prism of great power geopolitical rivalry,especially military rivalry,and considered the nuclear forces of China and Russia to be the"Number One Threat"to U.S.national and nuclear security.The Trump administration made major adjustments to U.S.nuclear policies,increasing the role and status of nuclear weapons in national security,abandoning international non-proliferation obligations,and implementing"Tailored Nuclear Deterrence"for specific countries.The nuclear policy pursued by the Trump administration has not changed the reliance of the United States on nuclear weapons to ensure American hegemony,extending security guarantees to allies through nuclear weapons,and selectively implementing non-proliferation,which has greatly contributed to a nuclear arms race and stimulated nuclear proliferation,while lowering the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons.This is a breach of and provocation to international strategic stability.To that end,the international community has waged a struggle to reduce the risk of the use of nuclear weapons.The international nuclear posture will remain grim for the foreseeable future.