当代美国海权理论与威胁评估——基于中国海洋安全视角

Contemporary American Seapower Theory and Threats Assessment——Based on China's Marine Security Perspective

在美国的海权理论体系中,威胁评估始终是一个非常重要的内容。在后冷战时代,美国开始逐步将中国视为战略竞争对手,其威胁评估的主要内容也集中于中国的海权建设。美国当代海权理论中的海上威胁评估有其鲜明特色,不仅重视包括人工智能在内的先进科学技术,而且霸权护持色彩浓厚。在可以预见的未来,美国海权理论中的威胁评估将会突出新概念武器的威胁,并有可能污蔑中国破坏国际海洋秩序,且将北极和所谓印太地区作为地缘政治重点地区。这种威胁评估的聚焦不仅对中国的海上航道安全产生威胁,而且对中国的海基核力量、海外利益以及本土安全都产生了不利影响,在很大程度上恶化了中国的海洋安全环境,且为两国关系的健康发展以及安全领域的互信设置了障碍,并因此成为维护国际安全的负面因素。

In the three paradigms of international relations theory,the realism theory has always occupied a very important position.In the realism theory,the geopolitical theory and the balance of power theory have a unique pillar function.The Seapower theory is the first formed strategic school in geopolitical theory.As the founding country of the Seapower theory,the United States played a very important role in the development and evolution of this school,and had an irreplaceable influence on the whole theoretical system f Seapower.In the U.S.system of Seapower theory,threat assessment has always been a very important content.In the post-Cold War era,the United States has come to see China as a strategic competitor,and its threat assessment has focused on China's Seapower construction.The maritime threat assessment in the contemporary Seapower theory of the United States has its own distinctive characteristics,not only emphasizing advanced science and technology,but also containing a strong color of hegemonic support,and focusing on China.This situation not only threatens the security of China's sea lanes,but also adversely affects China's sea-based nuclear forces,overseas interests,and homeland security,which in turn affects the healthy development of Sino-U.S.relations.