中国文化旅游产业政策演进及有效性分析——基于2009—2018年政策样本的实证研究

The Evolution and Effectiveness of China’s Cultural Tourism Industry Policies from 2009 to 2018: An Empirical Study

文旅融合是旅游产业发展的重要基础,但学界对既有政策体系对文化旅游产业的作用机制却一直缺乏应有的理论关注和实证检验。该研究对2009—2018年文化旅游产业的109条相关政策进行了系统梳理,总结出文化旅游产业政策的工具类型、发布部门、阶段性力度演进等特征,同时结合42家文化旅游上市企业财务报表中的资产总额、营业收入和投资现金流等数据,基于时间序列分析中的VAR模型,利用协整检验、Granger因果检验、脉冲响应和方差分解等方法,对文化旅游产业政策力度对文化旅游产业发展的有效性进行实证分析。结果显示:(1)政策力度与文旅产业发展规模水平、收益水平和投资建设水平存在长期均衡关系,并且与发展规模水平、投资建设水平存在单向因果关系,与收益水平存在双向因果关系。(2)政策力度对文旅产业规模扩大具有显著的短期促进作用,但其长期促进作用逐渐减弱。政策力度对产业收益的增长具有促进作用,但在后期较不稳定。政策力度对文旅产业投资水平具有短期刺激作用,机遇期结束后刺激作用放缓。(3)政策力度是文旅产业规模增长的主要因素,国内旅游总花费是文旅产业收益增长的主要因素,政策力度和国内旅游总花费对文旅产业投资水平有影响,但非主要影响因素。

The integration of culture and tourism is important for the development of the tourism industry,but there have been few theoretical and empirical studies on the mechanism underlying China’s cultural tourism industry policy-making.In this study,we analyze 109 policies related to the cultural tourism industry from 2009 to 2018 and summarize their characteristics,such as the type of policy tool used,the publishing department,and the phased evolution of policy-related power.We use data on total gross assets,operating revenue,and investment cash flow contained in the financial statements of 42 listed cultural tourism enterprises.On the basis of the VAR model,we use a cointegration test,a Granger causality test,impulse response,and variance decomposition to empirically analyze the effectiveness of cultural tourism industry-related policies in relation to the development of the cultural tourism industry.The results show that:(1)The push and pull factors related to supply-oriented and demand-oriented policies,respectively,are insufficient,and coordination among departments participating in the development of cultural tourism industry policies is constantly increasing.Moreover,the evolution of power in relation to cultural tourism industry policies can be divided into three stages:an initial growth period,a steady growth period,and a rapid growth period;(2)Policy power has a long-term relationship with the scale,income level,and investment level of the cultural tourism industry;enhanced policy power will increase the scale of the cultural tourism industry and industry-related investment,and policy power and the income level of the cultural tourism industry are engaged in a virtuous cycle of mutual promotion;(3)Policy power has a significantly positive short-term effect on the cultural tourism industry,but its effect is gradually weakened in the long term.Policy power can initially promote income growth in the industry,but this growth does not remain stable.Policy power also has a positive short-term effect on the level of investment in the cultural tourism industry,but the effect diminishes following the initial period of opportunity;(4)Policy power is the main factor in the overall growth of the cultural tourism industry,and domestic tourism expenditure is the main factor in income growth,while policy power and domestic tourism expenditure both have an impact on the level of investment in the cultural tourism industry,but are not the main influencing factors.Finally,we present proposals aimed at strengthening the formulation of both demand-oriented and supply-oriented policies,encourage government departments other than the tourism department to provide specialized policy support for the development of the cultural tourism industry,and encourage the sustainability and stability of policy implementation,striking a balance between quantity and quality in terms of policy formulation,improving the targeting of policy formulation,and improving the effectiveness and feasibility of policy implementation.