我国森林碳汇与居民福祉耦合关系的时空演变研究

Study on the Spatio-temporal Evolution of the Coupling Relationship Between China's Forest Carbon Sink and Residents'Well-being

探究森林碳汇与居民福祉的耦合关系,对促进森林生态系统与居民福祉协调可持续发展具有重要意义,且能为国家制定差异化的森林生态补偿政策提供新视角。以全国31个省(自治区、直辖市)为研究对象,利用耦合协调模型,分析森林碳汇与居民福祉的耦合关系。研究表明:(1)1978-2020年期间,全国森林碳汇总量均值由32907.78万吨提升至62871.65万吨,增幅为91.05%;单位面积森林碳汇均值由1978年的85.66吨/公顷上升至2020年的92.29吨/公顷。森林碳汇呈现西部高东中部低的空间分布特征,由沿海地区向内陆省份递增,且东北林区和西南林区始终为高值区域。(2)1978-2020年全国居民福祉水平整体呈上升趋势,1978-1988年、1989-1998年、1999-2008年、2009-2020年居民福祉增幅分别为173%、235%、131%、175%。(3)森林碳汇与居民福祉处于低水平阶段时同步发展,处于高水平阶段时发展不同步。1978-2020年全国31个省(自治区、直辖市)耦合特征大致为同向变化程度增强,呈现“优胜劣衰”的趋势,理想的协调型同增和失调型同增居主要地位,耦合程度不断提高,2020年耦合程度最高。文章在核算全国森林碳汇与居民福祉水平基础上,根据二者耦合关系,提出立足地区功能差异协调森林碳汇发展方向,持续提升居民福祉水平,建立福祉发展的长效机制、统筹规划森林碳汇与居民福祉发展目标三点政策启示。

Exploring the coupling relationship between forest carbon sink and residents'well-being is of great significance for promoting coordinated and sustainable development of forest ecosystem and residents'well-being,and provides a new perspective for countries to formulate differentiated forest ecological compensation policies.Taking 31 provinces(autonomous regions,municipalities directly under the Central Government)as the research object,the coupling coordination model was used to analyze the coupling relationship between forest carbon sink and residents'well-being.The research showed that:(1)During the period of 1978-2020,the average national total forest carbon sequestration increased from 329.0778 million tons to 628.7165 million tons,with an increase of 91.05%.The average forest carbon sink per unit area increased from 85.66 ton/hm^(2)in 1978 to 92.29 ton/hm^(2) in 2020.Forest carbon sequestration presented a spatial distribution characteristic of high in the west and low in the east and center,increasing from coastal areas to inland provinces,and the northeast and southwest forest areas were always in the high value level.(2)The overall level of residents'well-being in the country showed an upward trend in 1978-2020.The growth rates of residents'well-being in 1978-1988,1989-1998,1999-2008,2009-2020 were 173%,235%,131%,175%,respectively.(3)Forest carbon sink and residents'well-being developed synchronously at low levels,while at high levels,they developed asynchronously.From 1978 to 2020,the coupling characteristics of the 31 provinces(autonomous regions,municipalities directly under the Central Government)were generally characterized by an increase in the degree of change in the same direction,showing a trend of"superior increase to inferior decline".The ideal coordinated co-growth and unbalanced co-growth were dominant,and the degree of coupling continued to improve.In 2020,the coupling degree was the highest.Based on the calculation of national forest carbon sink and residents'well-being levels,and the coupling relationship between the two,the paper proposed three inspirations:Coordinating the development direction of forest carbon sink based on regional functional differences,continuously improving residents'well-being levels,establishing a long-term mechanism for well-being development,and comprehensively planning the development goals of forest carbon sink and residents'well-being.