旅游危机中线上媒体声量信号对潜在旅游者安全沟通行为的影响机制

The Influence Mechanism of Online Media Volume Signals on Potential Tourists’ Safety Communication Behavior in Tourism Crisis Situation

在旅游危机情景下,线上潜在旅游者的安全沟通已成为影响旅游危机和旅游市场发展走向的重要行为活动,但这一行为体系尚未被系统地识别和检验。本研究以信号理论为基础,构建了旅游危机情景下线上媒体声量信号对潜在旅游者安全沟通行为的影响模型,以2018年7月泰国沉船事件作为背景事件,436个中文媒体平台的11万余条声量信号作为大数据基础,引入VA R模型进行行为响应机制的验证分析。研究结果表明,线上媒体的总体声量信号对潜在旅游者的安全信息生产行为和安全信息分享行为具有显著的动态影响,但线上主流媒体、商业媒体、自媒体等分类媒体的声量信号呈现差异化的动态影响效应。潜在旅游者安全信息生产声量对其安全信息分享声量具有显著的动态影响,其中维度内的方差贡献率大于维度外的方差贡献率。本研究识别旅游危机情景下潜在旅游者安全沟通行为的维度结构,对安全行为的表现情景和维度类型进行了拓展性研究,验证了旅游危机线上媒体声量信号对潜在旅游者的动态影响机制,为旅游危机的线上舆情调控和旅游者行为分析提供了理论依据。

In tourism crisis situation, the safety communication of online potential tourists has become an important behavioral activity that affects the development trend of tourism crisis and tourism market. However, the online safety communication behaviors of potential tourists in tourism crisis situation have not been systematically tested. Based on the Signaling theory, this study constructs an impact model of online media volume signal on potential tourists’ safety communication behavior in tourism crisis situation. In this study, the Thai shipwreck in July 2018 was taken as the background event, more than 110 thousand volume signals from 436 Chinese media platforms were taken as the basis of large data, and the VAR model was introduced to validate the behavioral response mechanism. The results show that the overall volume signal of online media reporting on tourism crisis has a significant dynamic impact on potential tourists’ safety information generation behavior and safety information sharing behavior, but the volume signals of classified media which including online mainstream media, commercial media and we-media presents differential dynamic influence effect. Potential tourists’ safety information generation volume has significant dynamic influence on their safety information sharing volume, among which the variance contribution rate in dimension is greater than that of outside dimension. This study identifies the dimensional structure of online safety communication behavior, and conducts an extensive study on the performance scenarios and dimensional types of safety behavior. Also, this study validates the dynamic impact mechanism of online media volume signal in tourism crisis communication, which provides a theoretical basis for accurate regulation of online public opinions and tourist behavior analysis in tourism crisis situation.