中国民事诉讼率变迁的影响机制——对曲线理论的检验和修正

经典曲线理论认为民事诉讼率与经济发展具有倒U型曲线关系,但未指出曲线关系是否受其他因素影响,而既有的中国研究因缺乏大样本的地区数据,难以从正面展开对该理论的检验和修正。基于省级面板数据的实证研究表明,中国民事诉讼率变迁具有“前降后升”的时序特征和“东西分异”的空间特征,它与经济发展呈倒U型曲线关系,并实际位于曲线前半段,经济发展在较长时间内仍将产生正向驱动力,但逐步衰减。更重要的是,市场化程度和教育水平分别对曲线关系发挥削弱和强化的调节作用。这种交互机制在中国的发现推动了理论发展,基于多层条件的新曲线理论因此成立。这有助于思考如何系统性改善法院的司法能力,例如将法院内部管理增效与区域差异化诉讼需求预测机制建设相结合,以及优化社会协同治理的宏观政策方案等。

The classic curve theory posits an inverted U-shaped relationship between the rate of civil litigation and economic development,yet it does not indicate whether this relationship is influenced by other factors.Due to the lack of large-scale regional data,existing researches hardly directly test and amend the theory within the Chinese context.This empirical research based on provincial panel data shows that the civil litigation rate in China is characterized by a“decline then rise”temporal pattern and an“east-west divide”spatial pattern.It demonstrates that there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between the civil litigation rate and economic development,situating presently in the curve’s initial phase where the economy maintains a positive,albeit diminishing,impetus over an extended period.More importantly,the degree of marketization and the level of education play a moderating role in attenuating and reinforcing the curve relationship,respectively.The discovery of this interaction mechanism in China advances theoretical development,leading to the establishment of a new curve theory based on multiple conditions.This contributes to thinking about how to systematically improve the judicial capacity of courts,for instance,by combining the enhancement of internal management efficiency with the construction of predictive mechanisms for region-specific litigation demands,as well as optimizing macro-level policies for social collaborative governance.