产业结构、环境规制与绿色发展效应:基于广东面板数据的实证分析

Effect of Industrial Structure, Environmental Regulation and Green Development:Empirical Analysis Based on the Panel Data of Guangdong

立足于省域视角,关注产业结构调整、环境规制、绿色发展之间的作用关系,为有针对性地诊断区域绿色发展状态、强化靶向施策提供参考。首先,基于对绿色发展内涵和外延的分析,构建发展过程与归旨相统一的绿色发展框架,进而建立兼顾促进人与自然和谐和增进社会和谐的绿色发展评价指标体系;然后,基于政策协同视角,利用2006—2019年广东省21个地级市的面板数据,按广东省全域、珠三角地区、沿海经济带和北部生态发展区分组,考察其产业结构调整、环境规制及二者交互的绿色发展效应、区域异质性和传导机制。研究发现:提高产业结构高级化显著增强广东省全域和珠三角地区绿色发展水平,但对沿海经济带和北部生态区尚不见明显的促进作用;环境规制不仅直接影响区域绿色发展,还对产业结构高级化和绿色发展关系存在差异化的调节效应,即沿海经济带与北部生态区环境规制促进产业结构对绿色发展的正向影响,但在珠三角地区则相反;环境规制与绿色发展的关系存在以产业结构高级化为门槛变量的单一门槛,当产业结构处于低水平提升阶段,适度的环境标准有利于绿色发展水平的提高,而当产业结构处于高水平提升阶段,绿色发展水平随着环境规制强度的提升而下降。由此得到推动广东绿色发展的启示:注重发挥结构升级对绿色发展的促进作用,实施阶段性和差异性环境规制政策,以及注重政策工具之间的协调性与互补性等。

Based on the provincial perspective,this paper pays attention to the relationship between industrial structure,environmental regulation and green development,and provides reference for targeted diagnosis of regional green development status and strengthening targeted policies.Firstly,by discussing the connotation and extension of green development,a green development framework with the unity of the development process and the content is constructed,and then an evaluation index system of green development is established that taking into account the harmony between man&nature and social harmony.Then,based on the perspective of policy coordination,the panel data of 21 prefecture-level cities in Guangdong province from 2006 to 2019 are used to investigate the industrial structure,environmental regulation and their interaction effect on green development,regional heterogeneity and transmission mechanism,according to the regional groups of Guangdong provincial region,the Pearl River Delta region,the Coastal Economic Belt,and the Northern Ecological Zone.The research finds that:improving the industrial structure can significantly enhance the green development level of Guangdong and the Pearl River Delta region,but the Coastal Economic Belt and the Northern Ecological Zone have not yet seen a significant promotion effect;environmental regulation not only directly affects regional green development,but also has a differential moderating effect on the relationship between the upgrading of industrial structure and green development,that is,the environmental regulation of the Coastal Economic Belt and the Northern Ecological Zone promotes the positive impact of industrial structure on green development,but in the Pearl River Delta region is the opposite;and the relationship between environmental regulation and green development has a single threshold with advanced industrial structure as the threshold variable,that is,when the industrial structure is in a low-level promotion stage,moderate environmental standards are conducive to the improvement of the level of green development,while when the industrial structure is in a stage of high-level improvement,the level of green development will decline with the increase in the intensity of environmental regulation.Therefore,the following enlightenment is proposed:paying attention to the role of structural upgrading in promoting green development,implementing phased and differentiated environmental regulation policies,emphasizing the coordination and complementarity among policy tools.