政府和社会资本合作项目运营期内系统韧性等级评价研究

System-Resilience-Rating Evaluation during Operation Period of Public-Private Partnerships Projects

政府和社会资本合作(Public-Private Partnerships,PPP)项目的可持续性发展越来越受到人们的关注,项目系统在运营期内受到扰动后能否恢复到正常状态决定了项目的可持续性发展。因此,为评价PPP项目在运营期间,项目系统在遭受外界一系列扰动后,在可接受时间、成本内恢复到正常状态的能力,文章首先引入"韧性"概念,并以此建立PPP项目运营期内系统韧性等级评价模型。文章将PPP项目运营期内系统韧性分为可靠能力和恢复能力,并从项目自身、政府和运维3个层面分析可靠能力。在文献调研和专家访谈的基础上确定PPP项目运营期内系统韧性影响因素,并就此建立评价指标体系。文章基于云模型和物元理论相结合的评价方法构建等级评价模型,并将系统韧性分为5个等级。通过案例的分析,文章所提出的指标体系和评价模型具有一定的适用性。

The sustainable development of the Public-Private-Partnerships(PPP)projects has attracted people’s attention.The projects’ability of restoration determines the sustainability of the project.Therefore,in order to evaluate the systems’ability of restoration within a certain period and cost during its operation,this research firstly introduces the concept of resilience,and establishes a system-resilience-rating model.In this paper,the resilience contains two main parts which are reliability and recovery capacity.What’s more the reliability capability from three aspects:characteristics of project itself,the support of the government and the statement of operation and maintenance.On the basis of literature research and expert interviews,this study founds out the influencing factors of system-resilience in operation period of PPP projects,and established the evaluation index system,combining cloud model and matter-element theory.this paper constructs a rating evaluation model and divides the system resilience into five grades.Through the analysis of cases,the index system and evaluation model proposed in this study can be apply to other research.