基于层次-模糊综合评价法的东非公路施工成本风险评估

Research on Risk Assessment of Highway Construction Cost in East Africa Based on Hierarchy-fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method

由于东非地区公路工程施工具有费用构成特殊、环境状况复杂、涉外协调难度大等特点,因此,中方项目部施工成本控制的风险高,需预先评估进行主动控制。利用风险分解结构法(RBS)进行了东非公路施工成本风险控制因子的分析,并据此得到以东非公路施工成本风险控制为目标层,以生产要素施工成本风险控制、特殊施工增加成本风险控制以及现场施工管理措施成本风险控制为准则层的施工成本控制风险清单,从而构建了以目标层为总指标、子准则层和控制因子层为一、二级指标,涵盖了22项成本风险控制因子的东非公路施工成本风险控制指标体系。然后利用模糊综合评价法结合层次分析法建立了东非地区公路施工成本风险控制评估模型,可据此判断东非公路施工成本风险因素的影响程度,最后通过实例验证了评估模型的可行性与可操作性。

Due to the special cost structure,complex environmental conditions and difficulty of foreign-related coordination of highway construction in East Africa,the construction of the Chinese project department has high risk of construction cost control and needs to be pre-evaluated for active control.The risk structure decomposition method(RBS)is used to determine the construction cost risk list of East African highway.Based on this,the list of construction cost control risks is obtained,which takes East African highway construction cost risk control as the target layer,production factors construction cost control risks,special construction increase cost control risks,and field construction management measures cost control risks as the criteria layer.Thus,an East African highway construction cost risk control index system is constructed,which takes the target layer as the general index and the sub-criteria layer and the control factor layer as the first and second indicators,and covers 22 cost risk control factors.Then the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method combined with the analytic hierarchy process is used to establish the East African region highway construction cost control risk evaluation model,which can judge the East African highway construction cost risk factors’influence degree,and finally verify the feasibility and operability of the evaluation model through an example.