中国市级城投债发行的影响因素研究——基于土地财政与房产市场视角的分析

Research on the Factorsin the Issuance of China Chengtou Bonds of the level of Cities,Based on Land Finance and Real Estate Market

2009年后,城投债逐步成为中国地方政府的主要融资手段之一,作为一种具有中国特色的准市政债券,其发行行为受到所在城市诸多因素的影响,反过来也折射出该城市的经济发展情况。随着2015年新预算法正式实施,地方债置换工作启动,全国1.2万家地方融资平台步入转型,但进展相对缓慢,城投债务管理令人担忧。目前国家高度重视防范化解地方政府债务风险工作,将其上升到维护国家财政安全的高度,因此城投债的发行行为是非常值得我们关注的。本文以2008-2016年我国284个市级城投债数据为样本,进行实证分析,发现土地出让收入和房产市场相关要素会显著影响城市的发债规模和成本,发债规模会随着房地产市场的上涨而增加,发债成本则会随着房地产市场的低迷而增加。进一步地,我们将解释变量滞后一期,进行稳健性检验,发现结果仍然具有稳健性。这种现象出现的主要原因在于房产市场和土地财政不仅是债务偿还的直接来源之一,而且作为地方经济的重要风向标,其正向发展反映出城市经济发展积极,地方政府财政状况良好,间接加强了地方政府为城投债发行提供的隐性担保。但一旦房地产市场状态低迷,收入增速放缓甚至出现下滑,城投债发行也会受到波及,地方政府应合理把控对房地产市场的依赖程度,避免出现过大风险。

As a kind of quasi-municipal bonds with Chinese characteristics,the issue of chengtou bonds in recent years is one of the main means of financing for local governments in China.The issuance of Chengtou bonds is affected by various factors of the city,which in turn reflects the city’s economic development,so it is very much worth to pay our attention.Based on the data of 284 municipal-level cities from 2008 to 2016 in China,the empirical analysis shows that the land transfer income and the related factors of the real estate market will significantly affect the frequency,size and cost of the bonds issued by the municipalities.As the real estate market goes well,the frequency of bond issuance will increase,the scale may be biased due to the rigid constraints of the issuance system,and the cost of debt issuance will decrease.Further,we tested the robustness using the variables lagged one time and found that the results are still robust.The main reason for this phenomenon is that the real estate market and land finance are not only one of the direct sources of debt repayment,but also an important indirect factor of the local economy.The positive development reflects the positive development of urban economy,the sound financial status of local governments and then indirectly strengthening the local government’s implicit guarantee for the chengtou bonds issued.However,once the real estate market downturn,the income growth slowed down or even declined,the issuance of the chengtou bonds will be affected negatively,the local government should take reasonable control of the real estate market,in order to avoid excessive risk.