土地政策对耕地质量影响的研究——基于吉林省数据的实证分析

Study on the Impact of Land Policy on Cultivated Land Quality——Empirical Analysis Based on Jilin’s Data

根据吉林省1978~2016年相关数据,重点关注土地政策这一因素并以此建立回归模型和脉冲响应函数,对土地政策和其他相关变量和耕地质量之间的关系作实证分析。结果显示:改革开放以来的土地政策的演变对耕地质量具有显著性影响,短期内土地政策对耕地质量具有一定的导向作用,长期内土地政策对耕地质量的冲击弱化。除此之外,农业劳动力、化肥使用量、农业机械化、经济发展因素等也是引起耕地质量变动的主要因素,据此得出相应的政策启示。

Based on the relevant data of Jilin Province from 1978 to 2016,the author focuses on the factor of land policy and establishes regression model and impulse response function to make an empirical analysis of the relationship between land policy and other related variables and cultivated land quality.The results show that the evolution of land policy has a significant impact on the quality of cultivated land since the reform and opening up.In the short term,land policy has a certain guiding effect on the quality of cultivated land,and in the long term,the impact of land policy on the quality of cultivated land is weakened.In addition,agricultural labor force,fertilizer use,agricultural mechanization,economic development and other factors are also the main factors causing changes in the quality of cultivated land.Accordingly,the corresponding policy implications are drawn.