我国农业农村现代化的区域差异及影响因素分析

The Temporal and Spatial Evolution and Influencing Factors of China’s Agricultural and Rural Modernization

我国农业农村现代化具有鲜明的时代特征和重大的实践意义。构建指标体系测算近15年(2005—2019年)我国31个省(区、市)的农业农村现代化水平,在展现时空特征的基础上,借助障碍度模型和空间计量模型分别剖析省域农业农村现代化结构差异和水平差异的影响因素,以期为农业农村现代化的区域差异化推进和协调发展提供借鉴。结果表明:2005—2019年我国省域农业农村现代化整体水平逐年递增,由四大区域内部差异主导的农业农村现代化全域差异呈缩减态势,但农业生产、经营和产业结构现代化水平有明显发散迹象;我国省域农业农村现代化存在低质同构化与正向空间相关性的现象。城乡多维差距、农业面源污染、乡村治理失调、农村基础设施和公共服务的薄弱是导致省域农业农村现代化结构差异的关键因素;技术进步、城镇化、农作物种植结构、农产品对外开放度和经济发展水平对省域农业农村现代化水平差异有显著影响,但空间溢出效应存在差异,其中农产品对外开放度的溢出效应尚未显现。所以,应明确结构差异地区的突出优势,着力补齐农业农村现代化突出短板,发挥好区域协调效应和要素溢出效应。

China’s agricultural and rural modernization has distinct characteristics of the times and great practical significance.Based on the combined weight assignment method,the level of agricultural and rural modernization of 31 provinces(cities,districts)in China during the 15 years from 2005 to 2019 was calculated.And the spatio-temporal analysis method was used to show the spatio-temporal evolution of agricultural and rural modernization.With the help of obstacle degree model and spatial econometric models,this paper analyze the key factors of agricultural and rural modernization structural imbalance and the influencing factors of time and space layout,in order to provide reference for the regional differentiation and coordinated development of agricultural and rural modernization.The results show that:(1)The overall level of China’s provincial agricultural and rural modernization from 2005 to 2019 has increased year by year,and the global differences in agricultural and rural modernization dominated by internal differences in the four major regions are shrinking,but the differences in agricultural production,management and industrial modernization levels have obvious signs of divergence.(2)China’s provincial agricultural and rural modernization has low-quality isomorphism and positive spatial correlation.On the one hand,the multidimensional gap between urban and rural areas,agricultural non-point source pollution,rural governance imbalances,and the weakness of rural infrastructure and public services are the key factors leading to the imbalance of agricultural and rural modernization.On the other hand,technological progress,urbanization,crop planting structure,agricultural product opening degree and economic development level have a significant impact on the spatial layout of agricultural and rural modernization,but there are differences in spatial spillover effects.Among them,the spillover effect of agricultural product opening to the outside world has not yet appeared.Therefore,it is necessary to clarify the outstanding advantages of regions with structural differences,focus on making up for the outstanding shortcomings of agricultural and rural modernization,and give full play to regional coordination effects and factor spillover effects.