从逆周期到跨周期:财政政策调控的反思及展望

From Counter Cycle to Cross Cycle:Reflection and Prospect of Fiscal Policy Regulation

我国财政政策经历了四轮较大规模的逆周期调控,这些调控在取得政策预期目标的同时,也引起一些问题,而这些问题将留给下一轮周期去消化,因此新一轮调控在某种意义上也是对上一周期的纠偏。在"十四五"时期乃至未来更长一段时间内,我国面临的经济问题更多的是中长期问题,财政政策宏观调控的思路将采取中长期跨周期调控与短期逆周期调控相结合的手段,需要做好经济形势的预判并把握好调控力度,丰富调控工具,平衡稳增长与防风险,协同其他宏观经济政策并结合改革的手段共同解决经济发展的中长期问题,以使经济强基固本,达到长期性、内生性增长的目的。

China’s fiscal policy has experienced four rounds of large-scale counter cyclical regulation,which not only achieve the expected goal of the policy,but also cause some problems,and these problems are directly left to the next cycle to resolve,so in a sense,the new round of regulation is also the correction of the previous cycle.In the 14 th Five-Year Plan period and even a longer period in the future,China’s economic problems are more medium and long-term problems.The idea of macro-control of fiscal policy will adopt the combination of medium and long-term cross cycle control and short-term counter cycle control.We need to do a good job in predicting the economic situation,control the strength of regulation,enrich the control tools,balance the growth and the risk,and work together other macroeconomic policies,combined with the means of reform,jointly solve the medium and long-term problems of economic development,so as to strengthen the economic foundation,and achieve the goal of long-term and endogenous growth.