消费税征收环节后移对企业的影响——来自股票市场的初步证据

Effect of the Backward Movement of Excise Tax Collection on Enterprises: Initial Evidence from the Stock Market

采用事件研究方法,本文通过观察股票市场对"消费税征收从生产环节后移至批发/零售环节"的改革方案的反应,为消费税征收环节后移对企业的影响提供了初步证据。结果表明,相比未缴纳消费税的企业,缴纳消费税的企业在[-1,1]事件窗口期的股票市值下降了约0.8%。这与消费税征收环节后移会提高消费税税基,降低消费者需求,负面影响企业业绩的预期一致。进一步,消费税征收环节后移对消费税缴纳比例较高、产品需求价格弹性较大、所销售的消费品采用从价定率和复合计税方法(相较于从量定额计税方法)的企业影响程度更大。此外,本文还识别了消费税征收环节后移之后潜在的消费税纳税义务人,发现这些企业的股票市值也在显著下降。本文结论有两点启示:(1)消费税征收环节后移的同时可以适度且差异化地降低消费税税率;(2)消费税征收环节的后移会改变行业内的市场结构,加剧行业分化。

In 2019,China’s excise tax revenue was CNY 1256.2 billion,accounting for about 8%of total tax revenue.In the same year,excise tax became the third largest tax in China after surpassing the rank of personal income tax,and remained a stable position in 2020.Excise tax is also important around the world.According to Tax Revenue Statistics 2018 issued by OECD,excise tax accounts for an average of 7.8%of total tax revenue in OECD countries.Given the importance of excise tax,it is of great significance to investigate the impact of excise tax.On October 9,2019,the State Council issued the Notice on Adjusting the Reform Promotion Plan of Income Division between Central and Local Governments after Implementing Large-scale Tax and Fee Reduction(Guofa[2019]No.21),which proposes a reform plan of"moving the collection of excise tax from the stage of production to wholesale or retail"to strengthen the function of the excise tax in raising fiscal revenue.Using the event study method,this paper provides initial evidence on the effect of the backward movement of excise tax collection on enterprises by observing Chinese listed firms’stock market reaction to the above document.The results show that the market values of companies’shares that have paid the excise taxes decline by about 0.8%during the event window[-1,1]compared with those that have not paid,which is consistent with the expectation that the backward movement of excise tax collection will increase the tax base of excise tax,reduce consumer demand,and negatively affect corporate performance.Furthermore,the backward movement of excise tax collection has a greater impact on the enterprises that with higher excise tax payment proportion,greater price elasticity of product demand,and consumer goods sold with ad valorem rate and compound tax calculation method(compared with the quantitative tax calculation method).In addition,we also identified potential tax payers after the excise tax collection moving backward,and found that market values of these firms’shares also decreases significantly.Conclusions of this paper have following contributions and implications.Firstly,the current academic literature on excise tax mainly focuses on the tax incidence of excise tax or the impact of excise tax rate on firm investment,and there is little literature examining the possible economic consequences of different stages of excise tax collection.Although there has been some literature involved,it mainly focuses on the theoretical analysis and data simulation analysis on the feasibility of the backward movement of excise tax collection,or investigates the macro effect of the backward movement of excise tax collection.There are two differences between our study and the existing literature.On the one hand,based on the promulgation of the above document,this paper used the reaction of capital market to examine the real impact of the backward movement of excise tax collection,which is more practical than the existing theoretical analysis and data simulation analysis.On the other hand,since enterprises are an important part in the collection of excise tax,the acquisition of enterprise data is relatively convenient and comprehensive,and macro-economic data are summed up by micro-enterprise data.Therefore,this paper analyzed from the micro-enterprise level,which can more clearly present the economic consequences of the backward movement of excise tax collection,and expand the existing literature.Secondly,considering that the backward movement of excise tax collection will have a negative impact on corporate profits,we suggest that the excise tax rate should be appropriately lowered,which can increase government revenue and appropriately reduce the negative impact of tax reform on enterprises and consumers.In addition,there is no need to reduce the excise tax rate of consumer goods that apply to the quantitative tax calculation method,because they are less affected by the backward movement of excise tax collection.Finally,we find that the backward movement of excise tax collection has a greater impact on enterprises with higher price elasticity of product demand,which means that after the introduction of this policy,the market structure within the industry and the relative competitiveness between enterprises will change.Specifically,enterprises with low price elasticity of product demand will have strong market power in the industry because they are less affected by policies,which will lead to further differentiation of the industry.This conclusion has practical implications for companies,investors and policy-making institutions.