家庭负债与恩格尔系数分化——来自中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)的证据

Household Debt and Differences in the Engel Coefficients——Evidence from China Family Panel Studies

在居民部门债务快速攀升的背景下,本文从家庭负债角度探讨近年来中国城镇居民恩格尔系数下降及分化的原因。采用中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)2012—2018年的多期数据,本文考察了家庭债务对不同收入群体恩格尔系数的影响效应和作用机制。研究发现,家庭债务显著降低中低收入家庭的恩格尔系数。对于中等收入家庭,家庭债务通过资产收入效应和流动性约束效应降低恩格尔系数。对于低收入家庭,家庭债务加强流动性约束和不确定性,从而降低食品支出和恩格尔系数。由家庭债务攀升引起的恩格尔系数下降,并不意味着消费结构的升级和福利水平的提高。过度负债且非正规借贷比重高,引致了家庭消费行为谨慎、预防性储蓄动机加强,这是城镇低收入家庭恩格尔系数较低的主要原因。此外,教育水平较高、中西部地区的家庭,对家庭债务降低恩格尔系数的效应更为敏感。上述发现对提升居民福利水平,促进国内大循环具有一定的政策启示。

Under the background of the rapid increase of household debt,this article discusses the reasons for the decline and differences in the Engel coefficients in urban China from the perspective of household debt.Using the multi-period data of China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)from 2012 to 2018,this article examines the effect and mechanism of household debt on the Engel coefficients for different income groups.This study finds that household debt significantly reduces the Engel coefficient for low-income and middle-income households.For middle-income households,debt reduces the Engel coefficient through asset-income and liquidity constraints.For low-income households,debt strengthens liquidity constraints and increases uncertainty,thus reduces food expenditure and the Engel coefficient.The decline in the Engel coefficient caused by rising household debt does not necessarily mean an upgrade in the consumption structure and an increase in the welfare level.Excessive household debt with a high proportion of informal debt have led to cautious consumption behaviors and stronger precautionary savings motives,which are main reasons for the lower Engel coefficient of low-income households.In addition,households with higher education level or in the central and western regions are more sensitive to the effect of household debt on reducing the Engel coefficient.The above findings have certain policy implications for improving households’welfare and promoting the domestic cycle.