“双循环”背景下国际贸易冲击的宏观经济效应——理论模拟与动态计量检验

Macroeconomic Effects of International Trade Shocks under the Background of “Double Cycle”——Theoretical Simulation and Dynamic Empirical Analysis

厘清国际贸易冲击的影响是有效推动形成"双循环"新发展格局的内在要求。文章引入国际贸易冲击因素,构建开放经济下的新凯恩斯DSGE模型和TVP-VAR模型就国际贸易冲击对我国宏观经济的影响进行理论模拟和实证检验。结果发现:负向的国际贸易冲击导致我国产出下降、通货膨胀率上升、消费下降和汇率贬值;国际贸易冲击对产出、消费和通货膨胀的影响具有长期性,对汇率仅具有短期冲击效应;随着我国经济结构的优化、对外依存度下降以及经济增长韧性的提升,国际贸易冲击对各变量的影响强度均有所下降。应加快形成"双循环"新发展格局,短期强化财政政策和货币政策的逆周期调控力度,长期保持战略定力以更大的力度推动新一轮的改革和对外开放。

Clarifying the impact of international trade shocks is an inherent requirement for effectively promoting the formation of a new development pattern of"double circulation".This paper introduces the factors of international trade shock,constructs the new Keynesian DSGE model and TVP-VAR model under the open economy,and conducts theoretical simulation and empirical test on the impact of international trade shock on China’s macro economy.The results show that the negative international trade impact leads to the decrease of China’s output,the increase of inflation rate,the decline of consumption and the depreciation of exchange rate.International trade shocks have a long-term impact on output,consumption and inflation,and only a short-term impact on exchange rates.With the optimization of China’s economic structure,the decline of external dependence and the improvement of economic growth resilience,the impact strength of international trade shocks on all variables has decreased.We should accelerate the formation of a new pattern of"double cycle"development,strengthen counter-cyclical regulation of fiscal and monetary policies in the short term,and maintain strategic resolve in the long term to push forward a new round of reform and opening up with greater force.