兰州市耕地生态足迹和承载力动态变化及影响因素分析

Dynamic Changes and Influencing Factors Analysis of Ecological Footprint and Carrying Capacity of Cultivated Land in Lanzhou

基于耕地生产力视角,运用扩展三维生态足迹模型刻画兰州市2010~2019年耕地资本存量消耗、流量占用及生态承载力的动态变化情况。然后,从耕地生产性利用和供给两个角度深入分析兰州市耕地现状并利用偏最小二乘回归法定量识别影响耕地生产性生态足迹和生态承载力的社会经济因素。结果表明:(1)近年来兰州市耕地占用基本处于可持续状态,耕地流量可以满足人类消费需求。(2)人口增长在增加耕地生产性生态足迹的同时会减少生态承载力,经济发展会同时增加耕地生产性生态足迹和生态承载力,技术提高不仅可以减少耕地生产性生态足迹,还能有效增加生态承载力。

Based on the perspective of cultivated land productivity,the extended three-dimensional ecological footprint model is used to describe the dynamic changes of cultivated land capital stock consumption,flow occupation and ecological carrying capacity in Lanzhou from 2010 to 2019.Then the current situation of cultivated land in Lanzhou are deeply analyzed from the perspectives of productive utilization and supply of cultivated land,and the socio-economic factors affecting the productive ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity of cultivated land are quantitatively identified by partial least square regression method.The results show that:①the occupation of cultivated land in Lanzhou is basically sustainable in recent years,and the cultivated land flow can meet the demand of human consumption.②Population growth will increase the productive ecological footprint of cultivated land and reduce the ecological carrying capacity of cultivated land,economic development will increase the productive ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity of cultivated land at the same time,technology improvement can not only reduce the productive ecological footprint of cultivated land,but effectively improve the ecological carrying capacity of cultivated land.