煤炭资源可持续力评价与系统协调发展分析

Evaluation of Coal Resources Sustainability and Analysis of System Coordination Development

从资源、经济、社会、环境和科技5个系统选取26项指标构建煤炭资源可持续发展指标体系,用熵值法和耦合协调度方法分析我国25个原煤省份2010—2017年煤炭资源可持续发展动态差异和耦合协调度。结果表明:①从煤炭资源可持续发展角度,2010和2017年可持续发展综合指数分别为0.3178和0.3725,整体呈现上升趋势。2014年较2013年有下降趋势,2015年开始综合指数又稳步持年增长。②从各系统发展角度,2010—2012年科技和环境系统发展趋势较好,持年稳定增长。资源和经济系统分别经历先升后降和先降后升的发展趋势,社会系统出现持年下降的发展趋势。2012年后5个系统发展趋势均为稳定上升。③从系统耦合协调发展角度,2010和2017年我国煤炭资源5个系统耦合协调度分别为0.5014和0.5421,变异系数分别为0.1213和0.1139,说明煤炭资源5个系统的耦合协调度在不断上升,同时各省份的发展差异在逐渐减小。但全国整体发展速度较慢,仍需不断加强系统间的协调能力,进一步促进煤炭资源可持续协调发展。

This paper selects 26 indicators from resource,economy,society,environment and science and technology to construct a sustainable development index system for coal resources.Using entropy method and coupling coordination degree method to analyze the dynamic difference and coupling coordination degree of coal resources sustainable development in 25 coal provinces of China from 2010 to 2017.The results show that:1)From the perspective of sustainable development of coal resources,the comprehensive index of sustainable development in 2010 and 2017 is 0.3178 and 0.3725 respectively,showing an overall upward trend.There is a downward trend in 2014 compared with 2013,and the composite index has steadily increased since 2015.2)From the perspective of various systems development,the development trend of science and technology and environmental systems in 2010-2012 is good,with steady growth over the years.Resources and economic systems have experienced the development trend of rising first,then falling and falling first then rising,respectively,while the social system has a downward trend for a year.The development trend of the five systems after 2012 is rising steadily.3)From the perspective of system coupling and coordination development,the coupling coordination degree of China’s coal resources in 2010 and 2017 is 0.5014 and 0.5421,respectively,and the coefficient of variation is 0.1213 and 0.1139 respectively.This indicates that the degree of coupling coordination of five systems of coal resources is increasing,while the difference of development among provinces is gradually decreasing.However,the overall development speed of the whole country is relatively slow,and the coordination ability between the systems needs to be continuously strengthened to further promote the sustainable and coordinated development of coal resources.