人民币实际汇率对收入不平等的非对称影响研究:基于NARDL模型的实证检验

Asymmetric Impact of RMB Real Exchange Rate on Income Inequality: An Empirical Test Based on NARDL Model

文章通过将汇率区分为汇率水平和汇率波动两个不同的维度,同时考察两者对收入不平等的影响。在此基础上,文章又进一步将汇率水平变量分解成正向变动的累积和与负向变动的累积和两个部分,并基于非对称性视角构建NARDL模型,考察汇率水平变动对收入不平等的非对称影响。实证结果表明:人民币短期升值有利于改善收入不平等,贬值的影响不显著;长期来看,人民币升值或贬值都会恶化收入不平等,相较而言贬值的影响程度极为有限。人民币实际汇率短期的小幅波动能够改善收入不平等,但长期内汇率波动的幅度过大将会恶化收入不平等。从这个意义上来讲,维持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定,保持人民币汇率一定程度的灵活和弹性,允许汇率短期内的合理波动,将有利于改善收入不平等。

This paper divides exchange rate into two different dimensions:exchange rate level and exchange rate fluctuation,and examines their impact on income inequality.On this basis,this paper further decomposes the horizontal variables of exchange rate into two parts:the cumulative sum of positive changes and the cumulative sum of negative changes.Based on the asymmetric perspective,the NARDL model is constructed to examine the asymmetric impact of exchange rate changes on income inequality.The empirical results show that:(1)the short-term appreciation of RMB is conducive to improving domestic income inequality,and the impact of depreciation is not significant;in the long run,the appreciation of RMB will worsen domestic income inequality,compared with the impact of depreciation is very limited.(2)The short-term small fluctuation of RMB real exchange rate can improve income inequality,but the long-term fluctuation of RMB real exchange rate,i.e.excessive fluctuation of exchange rate,will worsen income inequality.In this sense,maintaining the reasonable fluctuation of exchange rate market in the short term and the flexibility of RMB exchange rate to a certain extent will help to improve income inequality.In the long run,only maintaining the basic stability of RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level can improve domestic income inequality.