不同规模生猪养殖成本效益研究——基于TOPSIS—多元回归模型的分析

Study on the Cost-effectiveness of Pig Farming at Different Scales——Based on TOPSIS-multiple regression model

明晰不同规模生猪养殖成本效益的优劣及各影响因素大小,对于推动生猪养殖降本增效和畜牧业高质量发展具有重要的现实意义。以山东省为例,本文首先运用熵权TOPSIS模型计算,并比较分析不同规模生猪养殖成本效益的贴近度,然后运用多元回归模型分析产值、饲料费、仔猪费和人工成本等因素对不同规模生猪养殖净利润的影响。研究表明:中等规模生猪养殖的成本和效益优势明显;大规模生猪养殖的成本优势明显、效益优势次之;小规模生猪养殖的成本和效益优势一般;生猪散养的成本和效益劣势明显。各因素对不同规模生猪养殖净利润的影响程度依次为中规模>大规模>散养>小规模;人工成本对生猪养殖净利润的影响最大,其次是产值和仔猪费,饲料费的影响最小。为进一步提高生猪养殖效益,应大力发展中大规模生猪养殖,提高生猪养殖劳动生产率和母猪产仔率,加快推进玉米豆粕减量替代。

It is of great practical significance to clarify the advantages and disadvantages of the cost-effectiveness of pig breeding at different scales and the magnitude of each influencing factor to promote the cost reduction and efficiency increase of pig breeding and high-quality development of animal husbandry.Taking Shandong Province as an example,this paper first uses the entropy weight TOPSIS model to calculate,compares and analyzes the proximity of the cost-effectiveness of pig breeding at different scales,then uses the multiple regression model to analyze the impact of factors such as output value,feed cost,piglet cost and labor cost on the net profit of pig breeding of different scales.The results show that the cost and benefit advantages of medium-scale pig breeding are obvious.The cost advantage of large-scale pig breeding is obvious,followed by the benefit advantage;The cost and benefit advantages of small-scale pig farming are average;The cost and benefit disadvantages of free-range pig breeding are obvious.The impact of each factor on the net profit of pig breeding of different scales is in the order of medium scale>large-scale>free-range>small-scale.Labor cost has the greatest impact on the net profit of pig breeding,followed by output value and piglets,and feed costs have the least impact.In order to further improve the efficiency of pig breeding,we should vigorously develop medium and large-scale pig breeding,improve the labor productivity of pig breeding and the farrowing rate of sows,and accelerate the reduction and substitution of corn and soybean meal.