碳中和愿景下中国能源转型的三大趋势

Three Trends for China’s Energy Transition under the Carbon Neutrality Vision

碳中和将深度改变未来能源系统,碳中和愿景下中国能源转型的三大趋势:一是能源系统电气化,到2050年一次能源电能转化的比重和电能占终端能源消费的比重预计将分别提高到80%和60%左右;二是电力系统低碳化,预计非化石能源发电比重将由当前的三分之一提高到2050年的84%-90%;三是能源电力系统去中心化,能源开发利用方式将由集中式转向分布式,能源系统形态将发生深刻变革。

Future energy system will be deeply changed due to carbon neutrality goal.This paper analyzes three trends for China’s energy transition under the carbon neutrality vision.The first is electrification of energy system;the share of primary energy use for electricity generation and electricity’s share of the final energy consumption mix are predicted to rise to 80 and60 percent respectively by 2050.The second is decarbonization of electricity system;the share of non-fossil fuel electricity generation is expected to rise to 84-90 percent by 2050 from current level of one-third.The third is decentralization of energy system;the way of energy development and utilization will be changed from centralized to distributed and decentralized,which patterns of energy system will be deeply transformed.