“一带一路”沿线国家制造业出口技术复杂度影响因素研究——基于35个国家交通与能源基础设施相关数据的分析

Research on Influencing Factors of the Technical Complexity of Manufacturing Export in Countries Along the “Belt and Road”——Analysis Based on data related to transportation and energy infrastructure in 35 countries

制造业产品出口技术复杂的提升对于"一带一路"沿线国家间贸易质量的提升以及产业结构优化升级具有重要的意义。本文基于2010-2019年"一带一路"沿线35个国家制造业产品的相关数据计算制造业出口技术复杂度,并深入研究改善交通、能源基础设施等因素对"一带一路"沿线国家制造业出口技术复杂度的影响。研究结果表明:交通和能源设施的改善能够显著推动沿线国家制造业出口技术复杂度的提升,OFDI对基建设施的投入-产出存在滞后效应及挤出效应,即当期产出可能出现负收益,而前期接受OFDI投入的基础设施工程一旦完工即可弥补当期的"潜在"亏损。最后,针对实证结果提出相关政策建议。

The upgrading of manufacturing product export technology is of great significance to the improvement of the quality of trade between countries along the"Belt and Road"and the optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure.This paper calculates the technical complexity of manufacturing exports based on the relevant data of the manufacturing products of 35 countries along the"Belt and Road"from2010 to 2019,and delves into the impact of infrastructure and other factors on the technical complexity of manufacturing exports of countries along the"Belt and Road".The research results show that the improvement of transportation and energy facilities can significantly promote the increase in the technical complexity of the manufacturing exports of countries along the route.OFDI has a lag effect and a crowding-out effect on the input-output of infrastructure facilities,that is,the current output may have negative returns.The infrastructure projects that received OFDI’s investment in the early stage can make up for the current"potential"losses once completed.Finally,relevant policy recommendations are put forward based on the empirical results.