河南省碳排放影响因素的结构分解

Decomposition Analysis on Drivers of Henan Province's Carbon Emissions

气候变化带来的影响日益引起关注,黄河流域高质量发展对河南省的生态和经济发展提出了更大的挑战,从生产和消费两个角度理清区域碳排放的驱动因素有利于碳减排政策的制定。本文基于投入产出表,采用结构分解模型来分析碳排放强度、前向联系、生产结构、后向联系、最终消费结构、人均最终消费和人口因素对河南省2002-2012年碳排放的影响。研究发现,高能耗产业依然是河南省碳排放的主要来源;碳排放增长的主要影响因素是人均最终需求的变化,遏制碳排放增长的重要因素则为碳排放强度、生产结构和最终需求结构的变化;从最终消费角度看,固定资本形成、城市居民消费的增长对碳排放增长贡献很大,省际贸易的流动在一定程度上遏制碳排放的增长。提高能源使用效率、调整产业链、优化产业结构,以及培养低碳需求模式是河南省当下减少碳排放的有效方式。

Even the environmental effects produced by climate change have caused government's attention,high quality of the Yellow River has put forward greater challenges on economic and ecological development of Henan Province.Analyzing the drivers of carbon emissions from the production and consumption perspectives could provide a better basis for the implementation of emission reduction measurements.Based on the input-output tables of Henan Province from 2002 to 2012,main influencing factors of carbon emissions were examined by structure decomposition analysis.Results show that the composition and growth sources of carbon emissions are mainly concentrated in the production and supply of electric power and heat power,smelting and rolling of metals,manufacture of nonmetallic mineral product and other energy resources production and processing industries.The growth of final demand per capita is the most important factor in the growth of energy consumption related carbon emissions during 2002-2012.Changes in carbon intensity,industrial structure and final demand structure are important factors in curbing the growth of carbon emissions.From final demand perspective,the formation of fixed capital and the growth of urban residents'consumption contribute greatly to the growth of carbon emissions.Inter-provincial net exports and increased inventories play roles in curbing carbon emissions from energy consumption.To realize reduction goal,Henan Province need promote on improving energy efficiency,adjusting industrial chain and cultivating low-carbon consumption patterns.