2014-2022年青岛大气污染健康损害经济价值评估

Economic Loss Assessment of Health Damage Caused by Air Pollutants in Qingdao from 2014 to 2022

文章以沿海城市青岛为研究对象,基于泊松回归的相对危险度估算模型评估青岛市2014-2022年大气污染的健康损害经济价值,并揭示主要大气污染物与城市经济发展的关系。研究表明,青岛9年间大气污染物的健康损害效应逐年降低,且大气污染物经济损害价值占GDP比重整体呈下降趋势。2014年3种主要大气污染物PM_(2.5)、NO_(2)、O_(3)健康损害经济价值分别为308.98亿元、269.85亿元、152.57亿元,它们的GDP比重分别为3.80%、3.32%、1.88%。由于居民医疗费用、用工成本的提升,2022年这3种污染物的健康损害经济价值分别为260.90亿元、274.74亿元、330.60亿元,整体略高于2014年评估数据。但PM_(2.5)和NO_(2)污染物健康损害经济价值在2022年GDP中的比重分别为1.75%、1.84%,相比于2014年降低了53.9%、44.6%。通过核算发现受PM_(2.5)影响最大的健康终端为门诊和慢性支气管炎,而受NO_(2)、O_(3)污染物影响最高的健康终端分别是循环系统疾病住院和全因死亡。研究结果可为大气污染防治工作的优先污染物控制提供理论参考,为目标污染物减排政策和路线的控制效果提供评估方法。

Choosing the coastal city Qingdao as the research object,this study evaluated the economic loss assessment of health damage caused by air pollutants in Qingdao from 2014 to 2022 based on a poisson regression relative risk estimation model,in order to reveal the relationship between major air pollutants and urban economic development.Overall,it was found that the health damage caused by air pollution decreases year by year over the nine-year period,and the ratios of economic loss value of the targeted three air pollutants to the GDP of Qingdao decreased in different degrees.In 2014,the health economic losses caused by PM_(2.5),NO_(2) and O_(3) were RMB 30.898 billion,RMB 26.985 billion and RMB 15.257 billion,respectively.And their ratios to GDP were 3.80%,3.32%and 1.88%,respectively.In 2022,due to the increase in residents’medical expenses and labor costs,the health economic losses caused by these three air pollutants were 26.090 billion yuan,27.474 billion yuan and 33.060 billion yuan respectively,generally slightly higher than the assessment data in 2014.However,the economic value of health damage caused by PM_(2.5) and NO_(2) accounted for 1.75%and 1.84%of GDP in 2022,which were reduced by 53.9%,44.6%compared to the values in 2014.Through economic loss assessment,this study found that the health terminals most affected by PM_(2.5) were outpatient and chronic bronchitis,while the health terminals most affected by NO_(2) and O_(3) pollutants were inpatients with circulatory system diseases and all-cause deaths.This investigation can not only provide a theoretical reference for the control of priority pollutants in air pollution prevention and control,but also an assessment method for evaluating the effectiveness of policies and routes to reduce emissions of target pollutants.