机会窗口、知识流动与缅甸选举制度的演变

Window of Opportunity,Knowledge Diffusion,and the Evolution of Myanmar’s Electoral System

2021年缅甸局势变化的一个直接导火索是,缅甸的多数决选举制度容易造成“赢者通吃”式的一边倒胜利。在简单多数制下,1990年以来凡是有全国民主联盟参与的选举,皆以其大胜告终。选举制度具有“黏性”,一旦有政党稳定从中得利,选举制度改革通常难以推动。缅甸选举制度修改的条件为,缅甸军人及联邦巩固与发展党面对选举结果的“冲击”,利用政治优势造就“机会窗口”,且具备足够的政治发展知识来反思选举制度的设计。1990年选举至2008年新宪法颁布是第一个修改选举制度的机会窗口期,2010年缅甸重启选举至2015年选举是第二个机会窗口期。但是,缅甸军人及巩发党没有得到充分的国际知识输入,选举制度未能在正常的机会窗口期内被改变。2021年的新局势可以视为“创造”了非常规的机会窗口,选举制度预计将被改为比例代表制。缅甸的案例说明,在政治发展知识匮乏的条件下,即使是自利的决策者也未必能够“理性设计”出于己有利的制度。同时,知识流动的不完整性是西方民主推广过程的副产品,政治发展的曲折性或许内生于这一过程。

One of the immediate reasons of the political changes in Myanmar in 2021 is the First-Past-The-Post(FPTP)electoral system,which could easily result in"winnertakes-all",lopsided victories.Electoral systems are"sticky";once certain political parties consistently benefit from a given system,reforms are usually hard to come by.Thus the conditions for electoral changes in Myanmar are:a window of opportunity created by a political advantage of the military and the Union Solidarity and Development Party(USDP)which are"shocked"by electoral outcomes,and sufficient political development knowledge with which they reflect upon electoral system design.Under FPTP,the National League for Democracy(NLD)has reaped lopsided victories in all elections it competed in since 1990.The period from 1990 to 2008 when the new constitution was adopted was the first window of opportunity for electoral system changes;the period from the2010 election restart to the 2015 elections was the second window of opportunity.However,the military and the USDP had not been exposed to sufficient international knowledge input,and the electoral system remained unchanged during those two windows.The new circumstances in 2021 could be seen as having"created"an irregular window of opportunity.The electoral system is slated to be changed to proportional representation.The case of Myanmar suggests that when political development knowledge is lacking,even self-interested decision-makers would fail to"rationally design"institutions favorable to themselves.Meanwhile,the incomplete diffusion of knowledge is a by-product of democracy promotion by the West,and the non-linear trajectory of political development could be endogenous to the process of democracy promotion.