基于马尔可夫链的非物质文化遗产旅游产品市场前景预测研究——以广西金秀瑶族自治县为例

Research on Market Prospect Forecast of Intangible Cultural Heritage Tourist Products Based on Markov Chain——A Case of Jinxiu Yao Autonomous County in Guangxi

中国非物质文化遗产资源丰富,民族地区非物质文化遗产更是别具特色,其中蕴含着中华优秀传统文化因子,是中国推进文化强国建设、增强文化自信的重要载体。为提高少数民族非物质文化遗产旅游产品开发的效益,以广西金秀瑶族自治县为例,通过马尔可夫模型对金秀瑶族自治县非物质文化遗产旅游产品市场前景进行预测。从预测结果来看,瑶族医药的市场占有率最高,较同年上期有所下降;瑶族织绣的市场占有率次之,较同年上期有所增长;瑶族服饰的市场占有率最低,较同年上期有所增长。从预测效果来看,瑶族医药市场占有率预测误差最小,瑶族织绣市场占有率预测误差次之,瑶族服饰的市场占有率预测误差最大。

China’s ethnic minorities are rich in intangible cultural heritage resources,which contain elements of China’s excellent traditional culture,and are an important carrier for China to promote the construction of a cultural power and enhance cultural self-confidence.In order to improve the benefits of the development of intangible cultural heritage tourism products of ethnic minorities,taking Jinxiu Yao Autonomous County of Guangxi as an example,the prospect is predicted by Markov model.Judging from the market share prediction effect,the Yao ethnic medical data has the smallest error,followed by the ethnic embroidery and the ethnic clothing.