经济波动、经营调整与增值税税负周期性

Economic Fluctuations,Business Adjustment and VAT Cyclicality

基于全国税收调查数据和手工搜集的各地市各年《政府工作报告》,本文采用GDP预期目标与实际值的差距衡量经济波动情况,检验了经济波动对企业增值税实际税率的影响。结果表明企业增值税税率呈现顺周期变化,这是由于经济下行引起增值税进项税额的减少。进一步的研究表明,虽然经济下行导致税务稽查强度明显增强,但税收征管因素无法解释增值税顺周期现象,增值税进项税额的减少主要是由于企业减少固定资产投资规模和原材料库存。本文结论为企业税负周期性变化提供了一个新的解释视角,对于当前中国积极财政政策的加力提效具有重要启示。

Based on the national tax survey data and the annual government work reports collected manually,this paper uses the gap between the expected GDP target and the actual value to measure the economic fluctuation,and tests the impact of the expected GDP difference on the effective VAT rate of enterprises.The results show that the VAT rate of enterprises has a pro-cyclical change,which is due to the decrease of VAT input tax because of the economic downturn.Further research shows that although the downward fluctuation of the economy has led to a significant increase in the intensity of tax inspection,the tax collection and management factors cannot explain the pro-cyclical phenomenon of value-added tax,and the reduction of VAT input tax is mainly due to the reduction of fixed asset investment scale and raw material inventory of enterprises.The conclusion of this paper provides a new perspective to explain the cyclical changes of corporate tax burden,and has important implications for China’s current active fiscal policy.