中国相对贫困线的设计:转移性支出的视角

Relative Poverty Line Design in China: A Transfer Expenditure Perspective

中国在消除了绝对贫困、进行扶贫战略转型之际,可以继续分城乡或将城乡融为一体、同时在省级层面或全国层面设定相对贫困线。另外,相对贫困线可以设为收入中位数的60%或50%。因此中国在设定相对贫困线时共有8种可选方案。基于国家统计局公布的收入分组数据,并使用著名的FGT指标,本文旨在估算这些方案下的相对贫困发生率以及消除相对贫困所需要的转移性支出,为政府进行下一轮扶贫攻坚的体制机制安排提供信息和决策依据。研究结果表明:中国相对贫困发生率基本呈上升趋势,农村的相对贫困发生率总是最高的。城乡一体下的相对贫困发生率比城乡分开时更高,这时城镇内部的相对贫困发生率较低且增长缓慢;而城乡分开时,城镇内部的相对贫困发生率较高且上升较快。如果完全依靠公共资源消除相对贫困,城乡一体下需要的总转移性支出要比城乡分开的高,这时城镇需要的转移性支出较小;而城乡分开时,城镇需要的转移性支出较大并超过农村。本文的政策建议为,中国在减贫战略转向相对贫困的初期可以在省级层面分城乡使用较低的、收入中位数的50%作为相对贫困线,将来可以过渡到城乡一体的和更高的相对贫困线。同时,要继续推进城镇化、市民化进程。

China could continue to divide or integrate urban and rural areas,while setting a relative poverty line at provincial or national level.Additionally,the relative poverty line could be set at 60%or 50%of the median income.Thus,China has 8 options for setting the relative poverty line.The purpose of this paper is to estimate poverty incidence and transfer expenditure required to eliminate relative poverty under these options,so as to provide information and a decision-making basis for policymakers in next round of poverty alleviation.The results show that:relative poverty incidence in China tends to increase basically;the rural relative poverty incidence is always the highest;the relative poverty incidence is higher when urban-rural integration occurs,but urban relative poverty incidence is smaller and increases slower under urban-rural integration,while it is higher and rises faster under urban-rural separation.As for the transfer expenditure required,it is generally higher under urban-rural integration.And urban total transfer expenditure is smaller in this case,while it is larger and exceeds rural total transfer expenditure when urban-rural separation takes place.The policy recommendations in this paper are to adopt a lower relative poverty line(50%)at the provincial level under urban-rural separation in early stages,then to consider urban-rural integration and a higher relative poverty line in the future.Moreover,we must resolve to vigorously promote urbanization and accelerate the process of citizenship.