中国地方预算执行管理改革及其效果评估

The Reform of China’s Local Budget Execution and Assessment of Its Effect

地方预算执行是中国公共预算改革的一项重要内容,但是它在改革初期并没有得到足够的重视,因而地方预算执行中的支出进度不均和支出冗余问题日益突出。在此背景下,财政部从2008年开始启动了一系列以强化地方预算执行为目标的改革措施,并不断趋于具体。为了评估这些改革措施的成效,本文使用间断时间序列和面板模型对1998-2017年地方预算执行情况进行了分析。统计结果表明,以2008年和2013年两个时间节点划分的两阶段预算执行改革,对改善地方预算执行的多项指标都起到了积极的效果。本文的发现不仅证实了财政部相关改革措施的有效性,并且为今后优化改革措施、增强改革效果提供了有力的经验支持。

Local budget execution is an important part of China’s public budgeting reform,but it was not paid enough attention during the early years of the reform.As a result,such problems as uneven spending progress and excessive expenditure have become more and more salient in local budget execution.Under these circumstances,the Ministry of Finance has launched a series of reform measures with the objective of reinforcing local budget execution since 2008.Over time,these measures have become more detailed.To assess the effectiveness of these measures implemented by the MOF,we employed the fiscal data of 1998-2017 and the method of interrupted time series analysis to evaluate the local budget execution during this period.The statistical results show that the two stages of the reform,with 2008 and 2013 as the dividing points,both have significantly improved the multiple indicators of local budget execution.The findings of this research not only have proven the effectiveness of the reforms measures of the MOF,but also have provided strong empirical evidences for optimizing reform measures and enhancing reform results in the future.