东北亚区域价值链合作中贸易平衡、贸易关联与需求依赖度研究

Trade Balance,Trade Association and Demand Dependence in Northeast Asia Regional Value Chain Cooperation

全球价值链分工格局的深刻变化、日益复杂的全球经贸形势,对中国对外贸易、产业转型发展、"一带一路"倡议等海外发展战略将会产生极其深远的影响。东北亚区域在中国价值链合作中一直占有十分重要的地位,本文首先分析传统贸易统计下东北亚区域贸易态势,进而基于亚洲发展银行——多区域投入产出表(ADB-MRIO)数据,借鉴Koopman et al.(2014)、王直等(2015)的增加值贸易核算方法,改进及构建相关指标,从增加值贸易角度对中国与东北亚区域价值链合作中各国的产业贸易平衡、贸易关联与需求依赖度等进行深入剖析,探明中国与各国的价值链合作关联机制、地位变化趋势、真实的贸易收益,为中国东北亚区域外经贸战略调整和产业转型升级提供参考依据。相应提出以下对策建议:正确审视贸易差额,更加关注增加值贸易结构和贸易收益变化趋势;制定差异化的国别产业贸易政策、促进高技术产业贸易关联和需求依赖度的提升;增强政治互信,推进中日韩自贸区建设,塑造国际贸易新动能;梯度强化优势产业竞争力,促进全球价值链地位提升以及重构。

The profound changes of global value chain division,increasingly complicated global economic and trade situation have extremely important influence on China’s international trade,industrial transformation and"Belt and Road"initiative.Northeast Asia has been playing a very important role in China’s global value chain trade.This paper first analyzes the regional trade situation of Northeast Asia under the traditional trade statistics,and then based on the Asian Development Bank multiregional input-output table(ADB-MRIO)data,learn from value-added trade accounting method of Koopman et al.(2014),Wang Zhi(2015),improve and build relevant value added trade indicators.This paper makes an analysis of the industrial trade balance,trade linkage and demand dependence in global value chain division between China and northeast Asia,fond out the vertical specialization mechanisms between China and other countries,trends in status changes and real trade gains.The following countermeasures and suggestions are proposed:Correctly examine the trade balance and pay more attention to trade structure and trade income change trend of value added trade;Formulating a differentiated industrial trade policy and making efforts to promote the trade linkage and demand-dependence of the high-tech industry;Enhance political mutual trust,accelerate the construction of China-Japan-South Korea Free Trade Area and create new momentum for international trade;Step by step to strengthen industrial competitiveness,to promote the status of global value chain and reconstruct China-based value chain.