跨越中等收入陷阱:基于产业互联网发展战略视角的评述

Overcoming the Middle-income Trap: A Review Based on the Perspective of Industrial Internet Development Strategy

随着中国经济增长进入中等收入阶段,陷入中等收入陷阱的风险逐渐上升,新冠肺炎疫情的冲击等因素无疑加重这一风险。本文在现有文献的基础上,对中等收入陷阱的成因及后果、可能导致中国陷入中等收入陷阱的风险因素、产业互联网对跨越中等收入陷阱的作用机制,以及产业互联网的发展战略等方面进行评述。研究发现,产业互联网的发展将通过推动收入分配结构优化、新要素供给规模扩大与质量提升、供给侧结构性改革、国家治理能力提升、新型城镇化建设等途径,针对性地缓解中等收入陷阱的各类成因,有效促进经济潜在增长率与全要素生产率的提升,助推中国跨越中等收入陷阱。展望产业互联网与中等收入陷阱的未来研究方向,至少存在三个值得深入探索的领域:一是构建产业互联网与中等收入陷阱之间的理论框架;二是对产业互联网在助推跨越中等收入陷阱过程中的作用进行跨国比较;三是需要重视对数字福利与数字经济政策的效应评估。

As China’s economic growth has entered the middle-income stage,the risk of falling into the middle-income trap has gradually increased.The impact of the COVID-19 epidemic and other factors undoubtedly aggravate this risk.On the basis of the existing literature,this paper reviews the causes and consequences of the middle-income trap,the risk factors that may lead China to fall into the middle-income trap,the action mechanism of the industrial internet to overcome the middle-income trap,and the development strategy of the industrial internet.To review the existing literature,the development of the internet industry will promote the income distribution structure optimization,the new factor supply scale and quality improvement,supply side structural reform,governance and new urbanization construction,improve the capacity to reduce all kinds of causes in the middle-income trap,effectively promote the economy’s potential growth rate and total factor productivity has increased,helping China across the middle-income trap.Outlook the future research direction of the internet industry and middle-income trap,there are at least three worth exploring areas:the first is to build industry between the Internet and the middle-income trap theoretical framework,the second is the Internet industry in boosting role in the process of crossing the middle-income trap international comparison,and the third it is to need to pay attention to the effect evaluation of digital welfare and economic policy.