公共卫生危机对就业和工资的总量与结构影响

The Aggregate and Structural Impacts of Public Health Event on Employment and Wage

以新冠肺炎疫情为代表的公共卫生危机对产出、就业及工资等带来复杂的总量和结构冲击。本文通过劳动力矩阵和投入产出表构建多部门就业数据库,基于可计算的一般均衡(CGE)模型分析新冠肺炎疫情对中国就业市场的冲击以及政府干预的政策效果。结果显示,在疫情冲击情形下,GDP增速和就业水平分别下降4.60个和6.52个百分点。疫情对就业和工资的冲击是全面性的,第一产业受到的冲击相对较小,第二产业和第三产业受到的冲击较大且结构性突出。定向财政支持、税费调整和货币政策支持等扩张性政策具有稳增长、稳就业和稳工资功能,带动产出和就业水平分别恢复1.49个和2.37个百分点,但各产业和各劳动类型对政策的反应具有差异性。政府需要统筹总需求与总供给、总量与结构以及内需与外需等的关系,更多采用"直达性"政策支持受疫情冲击较大的产业部门和劳动者。

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused a total and structural impact on employment growth and income growth.This paper constructs a multi-sectoral employment database based on a labor matrix,sets two scenarios of pandemic shock and government intervention based on the 149-sector Computable General Equilibrium(CGE)Model,and analyzes the impact of the pandemic on China’s economy,employment and wage.The research result of the pandemic scenario is that GDP and employment fall by 4.6 and 6.52 percentage points respectively.The impact on employment and wage is comprehensive.The overall decline in employment and wage of urban labor is larger than that in rural areas.The shock in employment of female labor is greater than that of male labor.The government stimulus policies have an overall mitigation effect on the impact of economic growth and unemployment,seeing GDP and employment recovering 1.49 and 2.37 percentage points respectively.Government intervention also has a significant structural impact on various industries and groups.The urban female with middle education background share the greatest policy benefits.It is necessary to coordinate the total and structural policies,adopt more targeted structural policies,support the hardest-hit industrial sectors,and focus on supporting the laborers with greater unemployment pressure and wage decline.