高精度曲面建模方法在气象要素场估测中的应用研究——以江西省为例

Research on Application of High Accuracy Surface Modeling Method in the Estimation of Meteorological Elements Field——Taking Jiangxi Province as an Example

为更精确地模拟复杂地区气象要素场的结构及特征,得到高精度气象要素数据,以江西省为例,利用WRF区域模式模拟江西省2019年夏季近地表气温场、2 m比湿场、10 m风速场的结构及日变化特征,并利用HASM-WRF方法将WRF模式模拟结果与气象观测台站数据进行融合,以提高WRF模拟近地面气象要素数据的精度和准确性,并讨论WRF模式及HASM-WRF数据融合方法对近地面气象要素的估测表现。结果表明,WRF模式能较准确地再现江西地区近地面气象场及时间变化特征,其中气温的模拟效果最好,比湿次之,风场的误差较大,WRF模式对江西地区近地面的气温、比湿和风速的模拟准确率分别为82.88%、64.58%、47.85%。WRF模式模拟的比湿偏低,风速偏高,存在系统性偏差,经过HASM-WRF数据融合方法的订正,气温、比湿和风速的准确率分别提高到了95.27%、95.54%和49.42%,说明HASM-WRF数据融合方法对WRF模式模拟结果有明显改善。

In order to more accurately simulate the structure and characteristics of the meteorological element field in complex areas,high-precision meteorological element data can be obtained.In the study,it takes Jiangxi Province as an example and uses the WRF regional model to estimate the structure of the near-surface temperature field,2 m specific humidity field,and 10 m wind velocity field in Jiangxi Province in the summer of 2019.Also,it uses the characteristics of daily variation,and uses High Accuracy Surface Modeling method(HASM)to fuse the WRF model estimation results with the meteorological observation station data to improve the accuracy and accuracy of the WRF estimation of the nearsurface meteorological element data,and discuss WRF The model and H ASM-WRF data fusion method estimate the performance of near-surface meteorological elements.The results show that the WRF model can more accurately reproduce the near-surface meteorological field and time change characteristics in Jiangxi.The simulation effect of temperature is the best,followed by specific humidity,and the error of the wind field is larger.The simulation accuracy rates of specific humidity and wind speed are 82.88%,64.58%,and 47.85%,respectively.The WRF model simulates lower specific humidity and higher wind speed,and with systemic deviations.After the coupling correction of the H ASM-WRF data fusion method,the accuracy rates of air temperature,specific humidity and wind speed have been increased to 95.27%,95.54%and 49.42%respectively,indicating that the HASM-WRF data fusion method has significantly improved the simulation results of the WRF model.