动荡变革期中国延续相对战略机遇的路径选择

An Analysis of International Situation in a Phase of Fluity and Transformation and Its Implication upon China’s Relative Strategic Opportunity

动荡变革的国际环境是中国和平发展面临的新形势、新挑战,是战略机遇内涵和条件变化的重要影响因素。进入21世纪第三个十年以来,中国的国际环境呈现更加复杂严峻的变化,大国战略竞争加剧冲击国际体系稳定性,周边地缘政治经济环境呈现新风险,部分西方国家选边站队美国参与对华制衡,中国经济发展的外部环境日趋复杂。这对战略机遇的内涵产生了深刻影响:由绝对战略机遇走向相对战略机遇,战略机遇更具竞争性和相对性,挑战呈现复杂性和应对性。同时,也对战略机遇的条件变化产生了直接或间接影响:战略机遇的国际体系条件从传统的单极多元体系向多极体系转换;战略机遇的政治、经济和安全外部条件从起伏波动向复杂严峻状态转变;战略机遇的主观条件从“顺势而为”向“谋势而上”转变。中国应当更新战略机遇的思想认知,增强识别机遇与风险及其相互转换的判断能力,在变化的世界以高超的外交思想和艺术提升中国塑造战略机遇的能力,在复杂严峻的国际环境中努力化危为机,寻求中国和平发展的战略机遇。

The complex and grave international environment is a new situation and challenge for China’s peaceful development,and an important factor affecting the changes in the connotation and conditions of strategic opportunity.Since the third decade of the 21st century,China’s international environment has grown increasingly complex and grave.The intensification of strategic competition has impacted the stability of the international system among major powers.China’s surrounding geopolitical and economic environment presents new risks.Some western countries choose to side with the United States and participate in checks and balances against China.The external environment for China’s economic development is becoming increasingly complex.The above factors profoundly impact on the connotation of strategic opportunity—from the absolute strategic opportunity to relative strategic opportunity,the strategic opportunity is more competitive and relative,and the challenge is complex and responsive.At the same time,it also has a direct or indirect impact on the changes in the conditions of strategic opportunity—the conditions of the international system are transformed from the traditional unipolar multipolar system to a multi-polar system.Its political,economic and security external conditions have shifted from volatile to complex and severe.Its subjective conditions have changed from taking advantage of opportunities to creating opportunities.China should update its thinking and cognition of strategic opportunity,and enhance its judgment ability to identify opportunities and risks and their mutual transformation,enhance China’s ability to shape strategic opportunities in a changing world with superior diplomacy and art.China should also strive to turn crises into opportunities in a complex and severe international environment and seek strategic opportunities for peaceful development.