“一带一路”倡议如何影响城市创新集聚方向——来自我国地级市的经验证据

How does the Belt and Road Initiative Affect Urban Innovation Agglomeration——Evidence from Prefecture-level Cities in China

本文以我国285个地级城市为研究样本,探析"一带一路"倡议对城市多样化与专业化创新集聚的政策效应与驱动机制。研究结果表明:"一带一路"倡议有效提升了重点城市的创新集聚水平,且对"一带"地区城市或中型城市的多样化与专业化创新集聚、对大型城市的多样化创新集聚均具有提振作用,但对"一路"地区专业化创新集聚产生了抑制作用;"一带一路"倡议通过贸易畅通、知识溢出、资金融通三种机制对城市创新集聚发挥出差异性作用,其中仅知识溢出机制表现出显著的正向全局调节效应,由于创新要素流动的负向中介调节,这种正向作用可能会受到一定阻滞甚至扭转。

Using data of prefecture-level cities in China,this article examined what and how the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)made effects on both urban innovation agglomeration.It finds that:Firstly,in all the way along BRI effectively promotes really urban innovation agglomeration,which even still holds through the multiple robustness regression estimations;Secondly,BRI not only boosts both urban diversification and specialization innovation agglomeration of medium-sized cities or the city located along the Belt region,but also benefits the diversification innovation agglomeration of large-size cities.Oppositely,BRI restrains specialization innovation agglomeration of cities located along the Rood region.Last but not the least,BRI plays various effects on the urban innovation agglomeration by trade open mechanism,knowledge spillover mechanism and financing mechanism.It is only the knowledge spillover mechanism that plays positive global moderating effect on urban innovation agglomeration.Besides,due to the mobility of innovation elements,the positive effects above generated by BRI through knowledge spillover mechanism may be interrupted or even completely reversed.