制造业全球生产分工深化能否提升出口国内增加值率

Does the Deepening of the Global Division of Production in the Manufacturing Industry Improve the Domestic Value-added Ratio of Export

全球贸易一体化背景下,全球生产分工的深化能否提升贸易利得是各国(地区)关注的重要问题。本文采用2016年发布的世界投入产出数据库(WIOD)和社会经济账户(SEA),基于前后向生产关联的视角,理论阐述并实证检验了制造业全球生产分工深化对于出口国内增加值率(EDVAR)的影响机制。研究结果表明:制造业前向生产分工深化能够显著提升行业EDVAR,后向生产分工深化也能够促进EDVAR的提升;低、中、高技术行业的前向分工深化都能够显著提升EDVAR,后向分工深化对于EDVAR的影响为正;收入水平不同的国家(地区),其前向分工深化对于EDVAR的影响都为正,后向分工深化对于EDVAR的影响为负;前向分工深化通过发挥要素配置效应,即提升资本—劳动比率,能够显著提升行业EDVAR;而后向分工深化对EDVAR的影响取决于技术距离,当技术水平与技术前沿的距离处于合理区间时,后向分工深化对于EDVAR的总效应为正;而当技术距离过大或过小时,后向分工深化对于EDVAR的总效应为负。

Using the World Input-Output Database(WIOD)and Social and Economic Account(SEA)published in 2016,this paper theoretically expounded and empirically examined the mechanism of the deepening of the global division of production on the Domestic Value-added Ratio of Export(DVAR)from the perspective of forward and backward production linkages.The results show that the deepening of the forward division of production in the manufacturing industry significantly improves the DVAR,so does the backward division.In addition,the deepening of the forward division of production in low-,medium-and high-tech industries is significantly and positively associated with the DVAR,and the backward division also has a positive effect on the DVAR.In regard to countries with different income levels,we find that the deepening of the forward division plays a positive role in enhancing the DVAR,while the backward division has a negative effect.Because of the factor allocation effect,by improving the capital-labor ratio,the deepening of the forward division of production can significantly improve the DVAR.However,the effect of deepening of the backward division of production on DVAR depends on the technical distance.When the distance between the technology level and the technology frontier is within a reasonable range,the total effect is positive.When the technology distance is too large or too small,the total effect is negative.