基于TPB-PMT理论的农户休耕意愿影响因素研究

Analysis of factors influencing farmers’fallow willingness based on theory of planned behavior and the protection motivation theory

基于计划行为理论与保护动机理论,构建劳动力外流背景下农户休耕意愿的理论框架,并利用生态严重退化区甘肃省635份农户微观调研数据,运用结构方程模型探究农户休耕意愿的影响因素及其作用路径。结果表明:1)农户行为态度、主观规范、感知脆弱性、感知严重性、自我效能和反应效能能够显著提升农户休耕意愿,农户反应成本、回报因子会显著降低农户休耕意愿。2)感知严重性和回报因子对休耕意愿的直接效应均大于其通过行为态度的间接效应。3)劳动力外流对主观规范、感知脆弱性正向影响农户休耕意愿的路径具有抑制作用,对自我效能、反应效能正向影响农户休耕意愿的路径具有促进作用。

Based on the theory of planned behavior and the protection motivation theory,a theoretical framework of farmers’fallow willingness under the background of labor outflow was constructed.Using 635 micro-survey data of farmers in Gansu province,the structural equation model was used to explore the factors and paths influencing farmers’fallow willingness.The results show that:1)Farmers’behavioral attitude,subjective norm,perceived severity,perceived vulnerability,self-efficacy and response efficacy significantly increase farmers’willingness to fallow,while farmers’response cost and reward factor significantly reduce farmers’willingness to fallow.2)The perceived severity and reward both have greater direct effects on fallow than their indirect effects through behavioral attitudes.3)Labor outflow has an inhibitory effect on the process by which subjective norm and perceived vulnerability positively influence farmers’willingness to fallow,and a contributory effect on the process by which self-efficacy and response efficacy positively influence farmers’willingness to fallow.