京津冀大气污染治理政策工具对大气质量的影响——基于政策文本数据(2004-2015)的统计分析

The Impact of Policy Instruments on Atmospheric Quality:Textual Data from Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Regional Policy(2004-2015)

本文选取强制程度、协同程度与整合程度为政策工具测量指标,结合2004-2015年政策文本数据,研究了京津冀区域大气污染治理政策工具对大气质量的影响.内容分析和回归分析发现:(1)依据强制程度划分的管制型政策显著降低了SO_(2)平均浓度,自愿型政策对其没有显著影响,市场型政策则显著增加了其浓度;(2)政策工具纵向协同程度对空气质量达到二级以上天数没有显著影响,横向协同程度对天数有显著负向影响;(3)作为政策工具整合程度要素的组织架构、信息系统和资金管理都对PM10浓度有显著负向影响.整体研究表明,政策工具的强制和整合程度均有助于空气质量的改善,但协同程度对空气质量的改善没有显著影响.

This paper selects the degree of coerciveness,coordination and integration of policy instruments as measurement indicators,based on policy text from 2004 to 2015,analyzes the impact of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei regional air pollution control policy instruments on air quality.Through text analysis and regression analysis,it finds out that:(1)concerning about the degree of coerciveness,regulated policy instruments significantly lower the concentration of SO_(2) while voluntary instruments barely work.But the market-oriented instruments significantly increase it.(2)The number of days with air quality above grade 2 is significantly decreased by the degree of horizontal coordination of policy instruments while barely influenced by the degree of vertical coordination.(3)Organizational structure,information system and fund management,which are elements of the degree of integration of policy instruments,all have significant negative effects on PM10 concentration.The overall study shows that the degree of coerciveness and integration of policy instruments contribute to the improvement of air quality,but the degree of coordination has no significant impact on the improvement of air quality.