黄淮海地区植被覆盖变化驱动力与驱动机制研究

Study on the Driving Forces and Driving Mechanism of the Variation of Vegetation Cover in Huanghe-huaihe-haihe Zone

基于1982-2003年GIMMS NDVI遥感资料、气候资料和社会经济统计资料,利用主成分分析、逐步回归等方法,对黄淮海地区植被覆盖变化的驱动力和驱动机制进行了研究,从气候、社会经济两方面分析了区内6种植被类型区植被覆盖变化的驱动机制。结果发现,不同植被类型区,其驱动机制差别很大,但总体来说,区内各类植被类型区植被覆盖变化大都受到气候和人类活动的共同驱动,主要驱动力为气候因素,人类活动在局部区域能够产生较大作用,而大范围区域植被NDVI(归一化植被指数)的变化或改变,主要受气候变化的影响。在此基础上,分别建立了6种植被类型区年均NDVI变化驱动力模型。

Based on the remote sensing data of GIMMS NDVI,climate and socioeconomic data from 1982 to 2003,by principal component analysis,stepwise regression,the driving forces and driving mechanism of the variation of vegetation cover in Huanghe-huaihe-haihe(HHH) zone are studied.The driving mechanism of 6 kinds of vegetation types are analyzed from climate and socio-economic aspects. The results show that the driving mechanism is quite different among different vegetation types in HHH zone.Generally,the variation of vegetation cover is driven by climate and human factors in HHH zone.The main driving force is climate factors.Human activities have obvious effect in local region,but in most regions,the variation of NDVI(normalized difference vegetation index) is affected by climate change.The driving forces models of 6 kinds of vegetation types are established.