农村金融发展与农业经济增长——基于安徽省的实证研究

Empirical Analysis on the Relationship between Financial Development and Agricultural Growth in Anhui Province

基于金融发展与经济增长理论,本文应用ECM误差修正模型实证检验了1991 -2005年安徽省农村金融发展与农业经济增长间的互动关系。实证结果表明两者之间存在长期均衡关系,在因果关系上,农村金融发展引致农业经济增长变动,在经验上颠覆了经济决定金融的基本认识,而相应支持了金融支撑经济增长的概念。另外,研究还发现,安徽省农村金融发展对农业经济增长的短期效应不明显,而农业经济增长对农村金融发展仅存在短期效应,中长期效应均不明显。

Based on the theory of financial development and economic growth,in this article we investigate the relationship between financial development and economic growth in Anhui agriculture.The result from ECM in- dicates that:(i)there is long-term relationship between the two factors,viz.the shock from financial devel- opment in Anhui agriculture affects economic growth,while the the shock from economic growth does not obvi- ously affect financial development;(ii)there lacks adequate short-tern promotion from fi...