土地利用/土地覆被变化研究:寻求新的综合途径

A study on land use/cover change: the need for a new integrated approach

土地利用 /土地覆被变化是很复杂的现象 ,参与该项目的研究人员要避免“瞎子摸大象”那样的片面性 ,必须寻求新的综合研究途径。为此 ,不能简单地沿袭传统土地利用研究的思路和方法 ,需要不断提出新的研究论题 ;对土地利用变化驱动力必须有一种普遍的、综合的认识 ;需要将多个案例研究联结为一个可代表区域空间异质性的网络 ,需要作多空间尺度的研究 ,从而将地方尺度和区域尺度的土地覆被动态联系起来 ;需要发展新的研究方法 ,并将从农户调查到遥感数据的各种信息综合起来 ;尤其需要形成关于土地利用

Land cover changes are not simple processes. There are complex simultaneous patterns of land-cover change, ranging from modifications in land cover to conversions and maintenance. There is a functional complexity within types of land-cover change, and a structural complexity between types of land-cover change, both in terms of spatial arrangements and temporal patterns of change. Land-cover change needs to be measured in its complexity to fully understand it. It is important to differentiate between land cover and land use when measuring patterns of changes. Land-use/land-cover change is a kind of extremely complex phenomenon. For all researchers involving in the study to avoid the unilateralism like blind-person touching elephant, they should search a new synthesis of studies. Therefore, the traditional approach of land use study is not effective and new topics are needed to be further found. A generalized and comprehensive understanding is required for the drivers of land-use change. We need a network of case studies that represents the spatial heterogeneity of the region and a multi-level approach that allows for a linkage between regional and local scale land-cover dynamics. Case study comparison is a major tool to derive generalizations of land-use/land-cover change research. We should develop new methods in mathematical modeling, descriptive models, empirical study, systematic case study and mechanism study. Linking house-hold-level information to remote sensing data is becoming a major tool to increase our understanding of land-use dynamics. The drivers of LUCC are always present but interact differently according to the temporal and spatial dynamics of the situation. A thorough understanding and modeling of these complex interactions is a prerequisite to generate realistic projections of land-cover change. The more important hypotheses for LUCC are those that frame the integration and synthesis of the science.