天山北坡呼图壁河流域近313年降水的重建与分析

Reconstruction and Analysis of Precipitation in the Hutubi River Basin on the Northern Slope of the Tianshan Mountains during the Last 313 Years

分析发现,天山北坡呼图壁河流域树轮年表与呼图壁气象站上年8月至当年7月的平均降水相关性较好,最高单相关系数为0.484(α=0.001),且具有明显的树木生理学意义。利用赛热克巴依萨、希热克久热特、喀音萨依的标准化年表能够较好地重建呼图壁河流域近313年的上年8月至当年7月平均降水序列,方差解释量达41%,并通过交叉检验表明重建结果稳定可靠。

In this study,several tree-ring chronologies were established based on tree-ring samples collected from the Hutubi River Basin,Xinjiang.A single correlation calculation revealed that the tree-ring chronologies were significantly correlated with the precipitation from August to the following July,and that the maximum correlation coefficient observed was 0.484.Based on the SRKt(STD),XRKt(STD) and KYSt(STD) tree-ring chronology series,the precipitation series from August to the following July during the last 3...