中国省级区域碳排放影响因素的实证分析

An Empirical Research on the Influence Factor of Carbon Emission in Chinese Provincial Regions

文章在能源消费导致的碳排放核算的基础上,利用1995～2005年中国30个省市区的面板数据定量分析了各地区碳排放与经济发展水平、产业结构、能源效率之间的关系。分析显示各地区碳排放与经济发展水平存在倒U型曲线趋势,而与能源消耗强度呈U型曲线关系,与第二产业产值的比重呈N型曲线关系。从各地区碳排放量对平均碳排放量的偏离量的大小,可以看出中国碳排放存在显著的东南部低中北部高西北部低的空间分布格局。

Based on the calculation of the carbon emission caused by energy consumption, through the analysis of panel data of energy and economy, we find: 1) There is a reversed U shaped curve between carbon emission and economic growth; 2) There lies a U shaped curve between carbon emission and energy consumption intensity; 3) And There lies a N shaped curve between carbon emission and the ratio of second industry; 4) Provincial regions carbon emissions were significantly spatial pattern of low in southeast, high in...