基于多目标的湖南省耕地需求量预测研究

Prediction of Demands on Arable Land in Hu'nan Province Based on Multi-objectives

随着社会经济的快速发展,人口数量的日益增加,湖南省耕地数量在不断减少,质量也日趋下降。科学预测湖南省的耕地需求量,并制定切实可行的耕地保护措施,对湖南省粮食生产及社会经济的发展具有重要意义。基于粮食安全、经济发展和生态环境保护目标,对湖南省2015年和2020年的耕地需求量进行了预测。预测结果得出,2015年的耕地需求量为3.9409×106hm2,2020年的耕地需求量为3.4407×106hm2。该结果可为湖南省土地利用总体规划中确定耕地保护目标提供参考依据。

With the rapid development of social economy and growth of population,the quantity of arable land has decreased continuously and the quality of cultivated land has been reduced increasingly in Hu'nan Province.Scientifically predicting the demand on arable land of Hu'nan Province and defining practical preserve measures will play an important role in its socioeconomic development.From the aspects of food-safety,economic development,and ecological protection,the study predicts that the demand of cultivated la...