作为温室气体排放衡量指标的碳排放强度分析

Analysis of carbon emission intensity as the main index for greenhouse gas emission mitigation commitments

针对美国政府提出的以温室气体排放强度下降率作为其减排目标的建议 ,分析了影响碳排放强度下降率的因素。利用历史统计数据 ,定量研究了碳排放强度下降率与国内生产总值 (GDP)的增长率、碳排放增长对 GDP的弹性、能源消费强度以及能源消费的碳强度等相关关系。对处于不同经济发展阶段国家的碳排放强度以及碳排放强度下降率进行了规律性分析 ,从而得出结论 :以碳排放强度作为各国减缓气候变化贡献的衡量指标 ,对于发展中国家而言 ,可以承认和反映其对减缓气候变化的贡献 ;对发达国家来说 ,则不能只谈这一单一指标 。

In response to concerns put forward by the US government, decreases of greenhouse gas emissions could be used as a basis for emission reduction commitments. This paper identifies the dominant factors influencing decreases in greenhouse gas emissions. Quantitative analyses of historical trends were used to identify the relationships between decreases rate of greenhouse gas emissions and the GDP growth rate, between carbon emission elasticity and the GDP, and between the energy consumption intensity and the carbon content of the energy supply. Analysis of the effect of the carbon content on the economic development of different countries with different economic structures shows that the carbon emission intensity can reflect their contribution to climate change for developing countries, but for developed countries, a single index reflecting the carbon emissions is not enough and other factors must be considered to determine whether the carbon emission intensity reduction is faster than the GDP growth.