1991—2006年浙江房地产业发展特征——基于房地产周期理论的实证研究

An empirical study of the development features of the Zhejiang real estate industry from 1991 to 2006 based on the cycle theory of real estate industry

采用房地产业增加值、商品房销售面积和房地产投资三个指标的增长率研究浙江房地产业发展特征,并发现1991年以来浙江房地产业经历了两次典型的周期波动。认为浙江房地产业周期波动主要是房地产制度改革、中央政府的土地与金融管制、分税制改革、房地产业的产业政策和浙江宏观经济等因素综合作用的结果,因而是一种典型的政策周期。

This paper discusses the development rule of the Zhejiang real estate in terms of the growth rates of the added value of real estate industry,sale area of commercial houses and amount of real estate investment and finds that Zhejiang real estate industry has experienced two typical cyclical undulations since1991.It is considered that Zhejiang real estate cycle is a policy cycle,which springs mainly from the real estate system reform,the central authorities' land and the financial control,the tax distributio...