中国省级公共投资的区域效应:互利共赢还是以邻为壑

Regional Effect of Provincial-level Public Investment in China:Mutual Benefit or Using Neighbor's Field as a Drain

文章通过构建VAR模型考察了省级公共投资对就业和产出的动态效应。实证结果表明:区域间公共投资的就业效应更多地表现为以邻为壑;而产出效应则主要体现为互利共赢。在就业效应方面,本地区公共投资对超过半数地区(16/26)的就业产生挤入效应;而区域外公共投资则对多数地区(18/26)的就业产生挤出效应。从公共投资总就业效应看,公共投资促进了以北京、上海、广东为中心的三大就业地带的形成。在产出效应方面,本地区公共投资对17/26的地区的产出产生挤入效应;而区域外公共投资仅对3/26的地区的产出产生挤出效应。

The paper investigates the dynamic effects of public investment in the provincial level on output and employment by constructing VAR model.Empirical results show that employment effect of regional public investment is mainly featured by using neighbor s field as a drain and output effect of regional public investment is featured by mutual benefit.Public investment inside generates crowding-in effect on employment in more than half of regions(16/26) and public investment outside generates crowding-out effect...