人民币升值压力及汇率政策调整取向分析

Pressures for Renminbi Appreciaotion and the Policy Adjustment Tendency of Exchange Rate

日益升级的国际贸易摩擦和国际游资的投机性冲击,只是人民币升值压力的表象,升值的真正压力在于人民币对外币值偏离了国内经济基础,实际价值被低估。在巨大的升值压力下坚持不变的汇率政策可能会使我国付出比升值更大的代价。本文认为汇率政策调整势在必行,央行应恢复真正意义上的浮动汇率制,逐步采取相应的改革措施,改善人民币汇率形成机制,使人民币汇率逐步向合理均衡的水平靠拢。

World trade conflicts and speculation in international idle funds are the external pressures for Renminbi appreciation,but the deviation of exchange rate from the national economic bases,the real pressure,devalues renminbi.Therefore,the policy adjustment of exchange rate is necessary.In order to make Renminbi exchange rate reasonable,central bank should resume floating exchang rate system,make gradual reform,and better formation system of Renminbi exchang rate.