近30a来新疆城乡统筹及其与城镇化作用关系的定量分析

Relationship between the urban-rural integrated development level and urbanization in Xinjiang

以城乡经济统筹和城乡居民统筹为角度,建立了新疆城乡统筹发展水平评价的指标体系得到新疆自改革开放以来城乡统筹发展水平在波动中快速增长,并且新疆城乡统筹发展水平高于全国平均水平。同时,采用Granger因果关系检验法对城乡统筹和城镇化相互关系研究表明,新疆城乡统筹发展与城镇化之间存在长期均衡协整和单项因果关系,城镇化水平每提高1%,城乡统筹水平提高0.7%,且存在两年的滞后期。

The term of urban-rural relationship has a long history in the study of economics,geography and regional planning.Some of the earliest works on the interaction between urban and rural adopted a clear distinction between them and largely focused on urban-based conceptualizations.This paper aims to re-unite the urban and rural connection by urbanization.It considers the research on 'rural' activities in 'urban' spaces,'urban' activities in 'rural' spaces,the links between urban and rural livelihoods and changes taking place on the interface between these two realms.Over the past decade,Xinjiang has been developed very fast.Great achievements have been made almost in every field,especially in urbanization.However,regional difference and urban-rural inequality are still a bottle neck problem for sustainable development.The urban-rural inequality is evoking a heated discussion in China at present.This paper uses Granger causality test to analyze the urban-rural inequality time series and urbanization time series from 1978 to 2009.By constructing the co-integration tests and error correction model of the urban-rural inequality time series and urbanization time series,this paper argues that there exists a long term balanced relationship between them and marginal significance is 0.7.The Granger causality tests suggest there is a one-way causal relationship between them that urbanization promotes urban-rural inequality,however urban-rural inequality doesn't significantly promote urbanization.Urbanization growth has a two cross-lagged promoting influence on the urban-rural inequality.Xinjiang has been in the period of urbanization promoting urban-rural inequality.