人民币升值对中国国际资本流动的影响

The Effect of RMB Appreciation on China's Cross-border Capital Flow

汇率波动是影响国际资本流动的重要因素,本文结合中国国际资本流动的主要特点,对人民币汇率波动及人民币汇率升值预期对中国国际资本流动的影响进行经验分析。实证结果表明,中国经济的持续快速发展和人民币升值预期是吸引国际资本大量流入中国的重要因素,人民币升值将会抑制FDI的流入,但不会使我国的FDI明显下降,国内利率也与FDI呈负相关关系。本文认为,人民币名义汇率的适度升值和长期稳定性有利于外资的合理流入,但目前阶段应加强资本监管,预防经济风险。

Exchange rate fluctuation is one of the key factors effecting international capital flow.Based on serious consideration on features of China's cross-border capital flow,this article conducted a empirical analysis on the effect of RMB exchange rate fluctuation and RMB appreciation anticipation on China's cross-border capital flow.Empirical results show that it is the sustained and rapid economics growth and anticipation on RMB appreciation drives international capital flows to China,so appreciation will inhibit this flow,but it will not drop down significantly.Domestic interest rate has a negative impact on capital inflow as well.Our main conclution is that moderate nominal appreciation and stability of RMB will be benifit to sound capital inflow.But regulation is also necessary to prevent macroeconomic risks.